Adventa 4Q LOSS

It is very unfortunately that Adventa has made a post tax loss of RM8575m for the fourth quarter. Inside the interim report, there has been written off on fire and CLOP deposits. The insurance is being processed and the written off is provided first. By the way, we should be glad that the revenue and profit for Adventa has been improved due to the strengthen of USD and fall in latex price from the peak.

I cannot do anything now. But, I would be considering to cut half of my position in Adventa to minimise my risk and search for any opportunity. The holding of Adventa has let me forgoes quite a lot of opportunity, Instead, I might cut half of its positions so that next time i could do some averaging on it.

Favelle Favco 7229

Instead of volume analysis, Favelle favco has been one of the largest crane producer in the world. Its subsidiary, largest hammerhead crane in the world,the Kroll K10,000 and the largest luffing tower crane in the world,the Favelle Favco M2480. 

For year ended 2010, Favco has achieved an EPS of 16.36cent wif a 5 cent dividend distribution. For this year 2011, the 3 quarters EPS has achieved 15.37cent,almost 94% of previous full year EPS. By rolling forward 5.71 EPS for the last quarter, the full year EPS would be 22.07cent in total. The projected P/E will be about 5times. It is relatively cheap. 

Besides, Favco has been maintaining a 25% to 30% dividend payout for the past few years. With the minimum projected EPS of 22.07cent, it would be a 6.5cent dividend to be declared in February 2012. Take note that it is the minimal projection as we know that there are contracts being secured for last quarter. 6.5cents dividend with 1.25 closing price as dated 23/12/2011 it is a 5% dividend yield. Indeed, it is much more better than the FD interest.

The table above showing the contracts that Favco has secured. Thus, the contributions and revenues of Favco will be stable and achieving an constant growth throughout the years.As at 16 November 2011, outstanding order book of the Group is RM609.1 million of which majority is from oil and gas cranes for the offshore oil and gas exploration and production activities. Remaining are from the shipyard, construction and wind turbine industry.

volume analysis 1 & 2

H5N1

There has been a new chicken flu boost out in Hong Kong. The next 2 to 3 weeks are crucial. It seems like good news and good news are coming out in favorable to some industries. One of them would be medical industry. As the demand for medical glove would be further enhanced. fall of MYR and latex price would help adventa to create some boosting good news.. Stay tune. Will the previous H1N1 serious event reoccur? Creating another miracle for glove industry?

The main stages of processing FFBs （油棕鮮果提煉的主要步驟）

(i) Sterilization （蒸煮殺菌）

Fruit bunches are sterilized by steam at about 1400C for a period of 75-90 minutes. The main objectives are to deactivate hydrolytic enzymes responsible for the breakdown of oil to free fatty acids; to loosen the fruits from bunches; to coagulate mucilage to facilitate breaking of oil cells and aid recovery of oil; and precondition nuts to minimize kernel breakage.

(ii) Bunch Stripping （果实剥落）

The fruits are stripped and separated from the bunch in a rotary drum stripper. Fruits are knocked out of the bunch by the lifting and dropping of bunches as they pass through the stripper. The detached fruits fall through the spaces between the bars on the stripper and are collected in a conveyor, which then feeds them into

the digester.  

(iii) Digestion （压榨）

Digestion involves the mashing up of the fruits under steam heated conditions. The digester is a vertical cylindrical vessel fitted with a rotating staff carrying a number of stirring arms. The action of the stirring arms breaks up the oil-bearing cells of the mesocarp to form a digested mash.

(iv) Oil Extraction （分離/抽油）

Twin screw presses are generally used to press out the oil from the digested mash. Hot water may be added to enhance the oil flow and the crude oil slurry is collected in the crude oil tank for purification. The fibre and nut (press cake) are conveyed to depericarper for separation.

(v) Clarification and Purification （淨化與提純）

The crude palm oil (CPO) mixture from the screw press consists of a mixture of crude oil (35-45%), water (45-55%) and fibrous materials and other solids in varying proportions. The mixture is pumped into a continuous clarification tank. The oil is maintained at about 900C to enhance oil separation. The oil is  continuously skimmed off the top of the tank while the denser impurities settle at the tank bottom. The oil is passed through a high-speed centrifuge and a vacuum dryer to a moisture content of below 0.1% before being sent to the storage tank.

資料來源：http://palmoilis.mpob.gov.my/Netacgi/nph-brs.exe?s1=0&;SECT4=AND&l=20&SECT5=QUEA&SECT6=HITOFF&d=QUEA&p=1&u=/public/tascessearch.html&r=8&f=G&op1=ADJ

Adventa

Adventa has been the only one glove stocks which has not really moved. Adventa has a total of three business segments and which are related yet instinct. The main core competence of Adventa would be still dealing with its medical glove manufacturing.

Although Adventa is one of the smallest market capital glove counter in KLCI, it has differentiated itself well in the niche medical glove manufacturing sector. Medical glove sector would be treated as defensive industry as its demand is still there no matter how bad the economy is. People still need to pay for seeking doctors, medical checkups, operations, amongst other.

Medical and examination gloves business would be well sustainable as compared with those other industry glove. Industry gloves would be used until it is worn out. Yet, medical gloves are very demanding as it will be replaced once it has been used for hygiene purposes. And in this market segment, Adventa is the potential future leader as it commits to become top of the world medical glove manufacturer in years time. It has been investing heavy research and development cost to keep Adventa growth on pace.

Adventa profit has been declining for a year. All these are well thanks to appreciation of RM and rise of latex price. It does impact all glove counter and manufacters using USD as export currency. This bull of RM mainly is due to the transfer of USD to asean market after USD reach its peak at 3.8 for MYR. Definitely they would be able to buy cheaper property and investment in asean with their strong USD. Until half of 2011, the USD seems meet it bottom and make a rebound till now ranging between 3.1 to 3.2 to MYR. Besides, thanks for the decline in latex price too, it has made all glove counters made a bull run in end of September.
Damn! i cut at lowest point for SUPERMAX at 2.3 after my thorough analysis. Without much experience dealing with such a fluctuate market, I get worried about the EUROPE PIIGS crisis and sell off during the last sideway trading of SUPERMAX. Furthermore, it announces a 1 for 1 bonus issue. Obviously, if i am still holding with strong mind, I dont think i will need to sell off SUPERMAX for the rest of my life.

Thus, after analysing, Adventa is the one which share price has not been rised much among glove counter. Will it possible it is now the big player collecting thier holding with letting the low volume of share price falling? Just stay tune!

投资目的

投资，普通人一联想起来就是高风险，总觉得放在银行比较实际，安全。
当然，又有些人奢望投资股票来一夜暴富，最后杀进杀出，满身是伤，还在原地踏步。
一年以来，已经领悟投资股票的最终目的，手中有股票，袋里有股息，心中无股价才是真正的投资之道~